Israel’s’ Gaza Total Control Plan ‘Suddenly Emerges! Gold prices soar, geopolitical risk premium continues to expand

1、 Event Strike: Dual Impact of Military Occupation and Civilian Migration

On May 5th local time, the Israeli Security Cabinet officially approved the “Gideon Tank” military plan, announcing the comprehensive occupation of the Gaza Strip and the forced relocation of 2.3 million civilians to the southern region. This strategic shift marks Israel’s shift from “short-term raids” to “long-term military presence”. The Israeli military has mobilized tens of thousands of reserve soldiers and plans to launch an operation immediately after US President Trump’s visit to the Middle East. According to the plan, the Gaza Strip will be divided into 6-10 “safe zones” controlled by US private security companies, with the distribution of aid completely taken over by the Israeli military and international organizations such as the United Nations excluded.

2、 International response: humanitarian crisis and geopolitical escalation

UN Secretary General Guterres urgently spoke out, condemning the plan as leading to an “irreversible humanitarian disaster”, with 90% of Gaza’s population displaced and 59 hostages whose lives are uncertain. The European Commission urges Israel to exercise restraint, while China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, emphasized that “any attempt to change the demographic structure of Gaza violates international law”. The National Security Council of the United States has expressed support for Israel’s actions, stating that Hamas bears full responsibility for the conflict, which is interpreted as paving the way for the Trump administration’s plan to “clear Gaza”.

3、 Gold market: Safe haven buying drives prices to break through key resistance

Affected by the surge in geopolitical risks, spot gold in the Asian market opened short on May 6th, hitting a high of $3386.59 per ounce, up 1.6% from the previous closing price and reaching a new high since the conflict in October 2023. On a technical level, the gold price has broken through the key resistance of $3300 per ounce, with the formation of a daily MACD golden cross and the amplification of the red momentum column, confirming a bullish trend. The hourly chart fluctuated upwards along the 20 minute moving average, and the 15 minute chart retracement did not break the support of $3305/ounce, indicating strong bullish momentum.

4、 Driving logic: Multiple factors combined to strengthen the risk aversion attribute

Geopolitical risk premium: The conflict between Israel and Hamas has resulted in 52000 deaths, and if a full-scale occupation triggers intervention from regional countries, it could trigger a “sixth Middle East war”. Historical data shows that similar crises typically drive gold month gains of over 5%.

Federal Reserve policy expectation: The market has a 97.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the May 7th meeting, but if Powell sends a “dovish” signal, the expectation of interest rate cuts will further boost gold prices. The current US dollar index has fallen 0.25% to 99.79, providing support for gold.

Israel’s “comprehensive annexation of Gaza” plan marks a fundamental reshaping of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, and the humanitarian crisis and spillover risks of regional conflicts it has triggered are pushing gold to the core position of a “strategic safe haven asset”. From a medium to long term perspective, the “permanent conflict” in the Middle East will reconstruct the global energy and trade routes, coupled with the “slow variables” of the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. The financial attributes of gold and its anti inflation function are forming a dual valuation anchor.