Gaza ceasefire ‘wrong’ triggers market volatility! Hamas’ agreement ‘denied by US and Israel, gold safe haven demand surges

Recently, there has been a dramatic turning point in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations – Hamas announced through intermediaries that it accepted the ceasefire plan proposed by US envoy Witkov, but both the US and Israel quickly denied it, causing concerns in the market about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East.

1、 Event details: The “Rashomon” ceasefire agreement and the ongoing escalation of military operations

According to multiple sources, the core content of this ceasefire agreement includes: Hamas releasing 10 Israeli hostages in two batches in exchange for a 70 day ceasefire and partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza; Israel releases hundreds of Palestinian prisoners simultaneously. However, as soon as the agreement was announced, it was met with a “triple denial” from the US and Israel: Witkov publicly stated that “Hamas’ statements are completely unacceptable,” Israeli officials said the agreement “cannot achieve war goals,” and the Netanyahu government announced that it will occupy 75% of Gaza within two months.

The differences in positions between the conflicting parties have exposed the negotiation dilemma: Hamas insists on Israel’s full withdrawal as a prerequisite for a permanent ceasefire, while Israel is only willing to accept a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of hostages. This contradiction directly led to the Israeli military launching an unprecedented attack in southern Gaza, demanding that 2 million Palestinian civilians be relocated to coastal areas, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

2、 Geopolitical Chain Reaction: International Social Differentiation and Proxy War Risks

The recent misunderstanding incident has intensified the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East

Israeli military expansion: The Israeli army has taken control of 40% of Gaza’s land and plans to completely eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities through the “Gideon Tank” operation, which may trigger retaliatory attacks by Iranian proxy armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

International public opinion pressure: EU launches review of EU Israel Association Agreement, German Chancellor Merz criticizes Israeli military actions as’ incomprehensible ‘, UK suspends free trade negotiations with Israel, and risks of multilateral sanctions escalate.

Iran’s attitude escalates: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei hinted at the possibility of proxy armed intervention. If Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, the situation in the Middle East may escalate into a full-scale conflict, and the gold safe haven premium will further expand.

3、 Impact on the gold market: safe haven premium

Geopolitical risk premium surges: Historical data shows that the average daily increase in gold during the escalation of the Middle East conflict can reach 1.5% -2%. The ceasefire oolong event briefly suppressed gold prices, but the expectation of the Israeli military expanding its offensive prompted bargain hunting to intervene, forming strong support around $3300.

Weakness of the US dollar and expectations for monetary policy: The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark to 98.77, and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged (4.25% -4.5%). Market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed until December, and the attractiveness of US dollar assets decreased. Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to “Aa1”, weakening the credit foundation of the US dollar.

The dramatic reversal of the Gaza ceasefire agreement highlights the fragility and complexity of the situation in the Middle East. Driven by multiple factors such as safe haven demand, weak US dollar, and de dollarization trend, gold has ample short-term upward momentum. Investors can rely on the key support of $3300 to place multiple orders, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s policy trends and the progress of the US Iran conflict, and flexibly adjusting their positions. Against the backdrop of the shaky US dollar credit system, the safe haven and anti inflation value of gold will become increasingly prominent.