Israeli airstrikes on Syrian capital ignite Middle East situation! Security Council emergency meeting focuses on sovereignty crisis, testing gold’s safe haven properties again

On the evening of July 16th local time, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a large-scale airstrike on the Syrian capital Damascus, targeting the Syrian Ministry of Defense building, military facilities near the Presidential Palace, and the entrance of the General Staff, resulting in at least 3 deaths and 34 injuries. This operation is the largest military escalation by Israel since its intervention in the conflict in the southern Syrian province of Suwayda on July 14th, directly triggering an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. The Security Council will hold closed door consultations at 18:00 Beijing time on the 17th to discuss the issue of “condemning Israel’s violation of sovereignty” proposed by Syria.

1、 Military Upgrade: The Strategic Game Behind Israel’s “Pre emptive Strike”

Israel’s operation, under the pretext of “protecting the Druze people in southern Syria from persecution,” used F-35 fighter jets and drones to carry out precise strikes on core military targets in Damascus. The Israeli military statement stated that it has destroyed the Syrian military command center and prevented the Syrian government army from deploying additional troops to Suwayda province. It is worth noting that at the time of the attack, Al Jazeera was broadcasting live in the center of Damascus. In the footage, a Syrian female anchor panicked and fled due to the destruction of the Ministry of Defense building behind her. The related video quickly gained global attention on social media.

Syrian Transitional President Salah delivered a national speech on the 17th, condemning Israel’s attacks as a “blatant violation of international law” and vowing to “defend sovereignty by all means”. The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has submitted an urgent proposal to the Security Council, requesting sanctions against Israel. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghi spoke out on social media, calling Israel’s actions a “cancer of regional stability” and calling on the international community to take joint action to contain it.

2、 International Struggles: Security Council Games and Divergent Positions of Major Powers

This conflict has exposed the strategic differences among major powers in the Middle East. US Secretary of State Rubio stated on the 16th that “ceasefire steps” have been reached with all parties involved in the conflict, but emphasized that “Israel has the right to self-defense”. Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Nebenjia, accused Israel of “undermining the regional security architecture” in a pre Security Council statement and demanded an immediate end to military intervention. Türkiye, France and other countries also issued statements calling for the settlement of disputes through diplomatic channels and opposing unilateral military action.

It is worth noting that there has been a subtle change in the United States’ stance before the Security Council meeting. White House National Security Advisor Sullivan stated in the early hours of the 17th that the United States “supports a comprehensive assessment of the situation by the Security Council,” but refused to commit to supporting the sanctions bill proposed by Syria. This stance contrasts sharply with Israel’s close alliance, highlighting the dilemma of the United States in balancing its Middle Eastern allies with international rules.

3、 The gold market: a tug of war between safe haven sentiment and policy expectations

The escalation of geopolitical crisis directly impacts the gold market. As of early trading in Asia on July 17th, spot gold was reported at $3330.53 per ounce, down nearly $50 from the previous day’s high, but still up 1.2% from this week’s low. This fluctuation reflects the market’s dual consideration of geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve policies:

Short term safe haven demand supports gold prices: Israeli airstrikes combined with Trump’s announcement of tariffs on 150 small and medium-sized countries on the same day have triggered global trade and security risk resonance. Deutsche Bank estimates that if the conflict escalates further, gold may break through the resistance level of $3350 within 48 hours. Historical data shows that in the early stages of the Middle East conflict, the average increase in gold prices reached 2.3%, and it maintained a premium during the ongoing conflict.

Federal Reserve policy expectations suppress gains: Despite rising geopolitical risks, the Fed’s brown book shows that businesses are facing “moderate to significant cost pressures” due to tariffs, and the market’s expected probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased from 70% to 62%. Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated on the 17th that current inflationary pressures are “forcing the Fed to be patient,” which has led to a rebound in the US dollar index to 98.4 and a rise in US bond yields to 4.46%, putting short-term pressure on gold.

The Israeli military operation is not only a microcosm of regional power struggles, but also a new challenge facing the global geopolitical order. In this war without gunpowder, the gold market will continue to play the role of a global risk “thermometer”, and geopolitical uncertainty is becoming a core variable affecting asset pricing.