Europe and Ukraine’s concerns come true: Trump may give up mediating Russia Ukraine peace talks, gold market welcomes geopolitical storm again

1、 Event Focus: The United States has run out of patience with Ukraine, and peace talks are on the brink of collapse

On April 30th local time, the Trump administration’s attitude towards the Russia Ukraine peace talks took a sharp turn for the worse. White House envoy Kellogg bluntly stated in an interview that Russia’s proposal for a “three-day ceasefire” is “extremely absurd” and that the United States is seeking a “comprehensive and permanent ceasefire”. This statement echoes Trump’s previous tough stance – on April 23, he publicly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky for “obstructing the peace process” and threatened that “if negotiations fail, the United States will completely withdraw”.

The concerns of Europe and Ukraine are becoming a reality. According to The New York Post, the Trump administration has proposed a “take it or give it up” agreement framework to Kiev, which includes core terms such as recognizing Crimea as part of Russia and Ukraine giving up joining NATO. Zelensky explicitly rejected the above request during his meeting with Trump on April 26, stating that “Ukraine will never legally recognize territorial losses”. EU foreign policy chief Kallas warned that any recognition of Crimea’s sovereignty would “undermine the rules based international order”.

2、 Geopolitical risk escalation: European energy security and Ukrainian sovereignty crisis

Trump’s tendency to ‘abandon talks’ has triggered a chain reaction:

European energy security is under pressure: if the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prolonged, Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas may revive. Despite the EU’s efforts to promote energy transition, countries such as Slovakia and Hungary still rely on Russian gas pipelines passing through Ukraine. Once the United States withdraws its mediation, Russia may resume pressure on European energy, pushing up European inflation and dragging down economic growth.

Ukraine’s sovereignty crisis deepens: If Zelensky refuses to compromise, he may face the risk of reduced military aid from the United States. White House spokesman Levitt hinted on April 23 that the United States may “suspend support for Ukraine”. This will weaken Ukraine’s defense capabilities and allow the Russian military to consolidate control over the four eastern regions of Ukraine.

The rift within NATO is widening: the opposition between European countries and the United States on the Crimea issue may undermine NATO unity. EU officials have revealed that if the United States unilaterally recognizes Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, Europe may part ways with the United States in areas such as sanctions against Russia and trade negotiations.

3、 The gold market: dual drivers of safe haven demand and policy game

Geopolitical uncertainty is reshaping the pricing logic of gold:

Short term safe haven buying surged: On April 30th, spot gold traded at $3313 per ounce in the Asian session, rebounding by $14 from the low of $3299 on April 23rd. The market’s concern about Trump’s abandonment of peace talks, coupled with the US consumer confidence index falling to 86 in April (the lowest since the COVID-19), pushed investors to take refuge in gold.

The shaking of the US dollar credit system: Trump’s tariff policies (such as imposing a 245% tariff on China) and the widening fiscal deficit have accelerated the process of “de dollarization”. Global central banks increased their holdings of gold by 12.75 tons in the first quarter, while China’s gold ETF holdings surged by 327.73% year-on-year. The “currency substitution” attribute of gold continues to strengthen.

The divergence of Federal Reserve policy expectations: Although market expectations for interest rate cuts have heated up (Goldman Sachs predicts a US GDP growth rate of -0.8% in the first quarter), the game between Trump and Powell has intensified policy uncertainty. If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates to combat inflation, gold may come under pressure; If the interest rate cut is implemented, the opportunity cost of holding gold will decrease, and the gold price may break through the resistance level of $3350.

4、 Future outlook: Geopolitical ‘black swan’ and data ‘shock wave’

Key Node in May: April 30th: If the ADP employment data for April in the United States (expected to add 123000 people) falls short of expectations, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts and benefit gold; May 9: The military parade on the Victory Day of the Russian Patriotic War, if the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, gold may trigger safe haven buying; Policy risk: If Trump fulfills his threat to “stop supporting Ukraine,” it could trigger a market repricing of the European security landscape, with gold volatility (GVZ) potentially exceeding 30%.