Middle East conflict erupts, Netanyahu declares’ action to last ‘, Iran F-14 on standby, gold skyrockets

Spot gold broke through $3440 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.83%, reaching a new high in nearly a month; Brent crude oil surged to $89.65 per barrel, an increase of 6.2%. After Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a tough statement on the 13th, all flights at Tehran Airport in Iran were suspended, and F-14 fighter jets carrying “Believe-90” missiles were urgently launched. The situation in the Middle East is on the brink of losing control, and safe haven assets are soaring across the board.

1、 Israel’s’ Operation Lightning ‘Upgrades: Beheading Nuclear Scientists, Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Capability

On the early morning of June 13th local time, Israel launched a military operation codenamed “Lion Power”, deploying 24 F-35I fighter jets and launching cruise missiles from submarines to carry out precise strikes on nuclear facilities and missile factories in six locations including Tehran and Isfahan in Iran. The Israeli military claimed to have “destroyed 90% of centrifuge equipment” and confirmed that Mohammad Eshagesh, a senior nuclear scientist of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Commander Hussein Salami were killed in the airstrike.

Netanyahu’s tough statement: “The operation will continue for several days until Iran loses its nuclear deterrence capability.” This is Israel’s most serious military strike against Iran since 2018, directly crossing Iran’s “red line” – Iran had previously warned that “attacking nuclear facilities is equivalent to declaring war.

2、 Iran retaliates: airport closure+fighter jets take off

Iran responds quickly:

Military countermeasures: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the activation of its border air defense system, with F-14 fighter jets carrying 300 kilometer range “Believe-90” missiles launched and aimed directly at Israeli airspace;

Civilian warning: Tehran Imam Khomeini Airport suspends all flights, stating “to observe the development of the situation”, and the market is concerned about the obstruction of crude oil transportation channels;

The US attitude is subtle: Commander of the Central Command, Kurila, urgently arrived in Israel, but Secretary of State Rubio declared that he “did not participate in the operation” and only called for “restraint”. Analysis indicates that the United States is facing inflationary pressure during the election year and is unwilling to directly get involved in the Middle East war.

3、 Gold Surges by $30: Dual Drivers of Safe haven Premium and Interest Rate Reduction Expectations

Stimulated by the situation, gold jumped short by $12 in the Asian market on June 13th, reaching a high of $3444.41 per ounce. Driver logic:

Geopolitical hedging: According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks in the Middle East purchased 28 tons of gold in June, resulting in a net inflow of 5.2 tons into SPDR gold ETFs. The Institutional Fear Index (VIX) surged to 18.7;

Expectation of interest rate cut: The US PPI in May was 2.6% year-on-year (core 3.0% hit a one-year low), coupled with initial jobless claims of 248000 (nearly August high). CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 82%;

Technical breakthrough: The spot gold daily line closed above $3400, forming an “island reversal”. The RSI was overbought in 15 minutes but long controlled, with $3390 (June 12th low) becoming a key support.

4、 Market risk warning: ‘Controllability’ of war becomes key

Short term pullback risk: Gold prices have oversold (RSI daily line 72), and if Iran only “symbolically retaliates” (such as attacking the Israeli consulate in Iraq), profit taking may trigger a pullback;

Crude oil shock: If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may exceed $100, forcing the Federal Reserve to temporarily postpone interest rate cuts and bearish on gold;

Policy variable: If the Federal Reserve meeting on June 19th sends a hawkish signal, gold may give up its geopolitical premium.