Non farm payroll forecast for April – labor market under tariff impact

1、 Introduction to Non Farm Agriculture – Total Data Analysis

The non farm payroll data released by the United States in May will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on May 2, with market focus on whether the labor market continues to slow down. In March, 228000 new non farm jobs were added, far exceeding the expected 135000. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, but the salary growth rate slowed down to 0.3% month on month. This data indicates that the labor market remains resilient, but the easing of wage pressures may provide space for the Federal Reserve’s policy shift.

There are divergent expectations in the current market for non farm payroll in April: on the one hand, supply chain disruptions caused by tariff policies may suppress employment growth; On the other hand, the resilience of service industry demand may support the job market. Special attention should be paid to the unemployment rate, wage growth, and changes in industry employment distribution, especially the performance of the manufacturing and construction industries.

2、 Small non farm ADP and large non farm forecast

1. Small non farm ADP

Previous: ADP added 155000 new jobs in March (expected 118000), indicating a rebound in private sector employment.

Prediction: ADP is expected to add 123000 people in April, due to a decrease in corporate recruitment willingness caused by tariff policies, coupled with weak manufacturing PMI.

Impact: If the ADP data is lower than expected, it may strengthen the market’s expectation of non farm weakness and drive gold safe haven buying.

The ADP employment figures for April will be announced on Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 20:15.

2. Non farm farming

Previous: 228000 new non farm workers were added in March, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and a month on month salary increase of 0.3%.

Forecast: Non farm payroll is expected to add 129000 people in April, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.8% and wages increasing by 0.3% month on month. Manufacturing employment may decrease due to tariff shocks, while service employment remains the main support.

Last month’s impact: After the non farm payroll announcement in March, gold prices briefly came under pressure to $3260 per ounce. However, due to the slowdown in wage growth, market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, and gold prices have quickly rebounded to $3318 per ounce.

The data on non farm employment changes for April will be released on May 2, 2025 (Friday) at 20:30.

(1) Non farm payroll data falls short of expectations: weak US job market, bearish for the US dollar, bullish for gold;

(2) Non farm payroll data exceeds expectations: the US job market is good, positive for the US dollar, negative for gold.

3、 Historical non farm payroll data chart

4、 Related institutions or banks predict

Goldman Sachs: Expected to add 180000 non farm payroll workers in May, with an unemployment rate of 3.8% and a month on month salary increase of 0.3%. The tariff policy has led to inventory adjustments in enterprises, putting pressure on employment in the manufacturing industry; Morgan Stanley predicts an increase of 220000 people, an unemployment rate of 3.7%, and a month on month salary increase of 0.4%. The resilience of service industry demand supports employment, but wage growth may slow down; The Federal Reserve emphasizes data dependence and may postpone interest rate cuts if the job market continues to overheat; If employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts will increase.

5、 This small non farm ADP and large non farm transaction reminder

1. Small Non Agricultural ADP (April 30th 20:30)

Key point: If ADP adds more than 170000, the US dollar may rebound, putting pressure on gold; If it is less than 150000, gold may reach the resistance level of $3370.

2. Non farm farming (May 2nd at 20:30)

Key points: Non farm growth>220000, unemployment rate<3.7%, month on month salary>0.4% → bearish for gold, target $3250;

Non farm payroll growth<180000, unemployment rate>3.8%, month on month salary<0.3% → bullish gold, target $3370.

Risk Warning: The market fluctuates violently before and after the data is released. It is recommended to reduce holdings and strictly set stop losses (such as a $5 limit).

6、 Forecast and analysis of important non farm market information for the current week

1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (May 1st 22:00)

Expectation: 49.0 (previous value 49.1), the manufacturing industry has contracted for three consecutive months, and the impact of tariffs has led to a decline in new orders.

Impact: If PMI<49, the US dollar may weaken and gold may receive support; If there is an unexpected rebound, it may suppress expectations of interest rate cuts.

2. PCE Price Index for March in the United States (22:00 on April 30th)

Expectation: Core PCE is 3.8% year-on-year (previously 3.9%), with marginal easing of inflationary pressures.

Impact: If PCE is lower than expected, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts will increase, and gold may break through $3370.

Summarize

The May non farm payroll data will be a key window for the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. If employment growth slows down and wage pressures ease, market expectations of interest rate cuts will strengthen, and gold is expected to continue its upward trend; On the contrary, if employment is stronger than expected, it may delay the timing of interest rate cuts, putting short-term pressure on gold. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in market sentiment before and after the release of data, and strictly control risks.

Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on current market information and does not constitute investment advice. Non farm payroll data may be affected by unexpected events, and trading needs to be cautious.