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Initial tariff impact: US June CPI rebounds year-on-year beyond expectations, gold under pressure to fall
- July 17, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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On July 16th, spot gold trading in the Asian market was around $3340 per ounce. The US dollar index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a high of 98.70 on Tuesday, reaching a new high since June 23 and closing at 98.616. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond rose to 4.487%, the highest level since June 11, and the 30-year yield hit a six week peak of 5.022%.
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The lower than expected US CPI triggered expectations of interest rate cuts! Gold skyrockets, 10-year US Treasury yield falls below 4.5%
- June 13, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the evening of June 11th, the US Department of Labor released May CPI data, with a total CPI of 2.4% year-on-year (expected 2.5%) and a core CPI of 2.8% year-on-year (expected 2.9%). The month on month increase was only 0.1% (expected 0.2%), both lower than market expectations. After the data was released, spot gold surged by $12 to $3376.3 per ounce in the short term (the highest in the Asian session on June 12th), reaching a new high for the week; The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds plummeted by 5 basis points to 4.38%, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year have risen to 72%.
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Tariffs strangle inflation VS immigration tears apart employment – the US economy is trapped in a policy paradox trap
- June 12, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
As the Trump administration’s tariff policy and immigration restrictions are affecting the U.S. economy at the same time, a set of seemingly contradictory data is causing the market to think deeply about the true health of the economy. The changes in the consumer price index (CPI) and the job market in May are essentially a microcosm of the distortion of economic signals under policy intervention, and this phenomenon is making the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy regulation fall into an unprecedentedly complex situation.
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The US CPI in April was lower than expected! The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has soared, can gold bulls take advantage of the situation?
- May 15, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The unexpected lower than expected CPI data for April in the United States has sparked strong market expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Data shows that the CPI in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, hitting a new low since February 2021, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations. As a result, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve may initiate its first rate cut of the year in September, with a full year rate cut of approximately 56 basis points.
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