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The Fed’s data dilemma and the euro exchange rate game: Dual variations of global monetary policy and market expectations
- June 27, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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In Q3 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suddenly announced that it would suspend the high-frequency collection of a number of core economic data, which stems from the strict cuts in non-essential government spending in the congressional budget. As an important reference indicator for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision-making, the frequency of non-farm payroll data collection has been reduced from monthly fine tracking to quarterly sampling surveys, and the sample coverage of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been reduced by 30%. At the same time, under the dual pressure of the energy crisis and supply chain reconstruction, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates three times in a row beyond expectations, pushing the euro against the U.S. dollar from 1.0572 to the key resistance level of 1.1218 in three months.
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