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Israeli airstrikes on Syrian capital ignite Middle East situation! Security Council emergency meeting focuses on sovereignty crisis, testing gold’s safe haven properties again
- July 17, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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On the evening of July 16th local time, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a large-scale airstrike on the Syrian capital Damascus, targeting the Syrian Ministry of Defense building, military facilities near the Presidential Palace, and the entrance of the General Staff, resulting in at least 3 deaths and 34 injuries. This operation is the largest military escalation by Israel since its intervention in the conflict in the southern Syrian province of Suwayda on July 14th, directly triggering an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. The Security Council will hold closed door consultations at 18:00 Beijing time on the 17th to discuss the issue of “condemning Israel’s violation of sovereignty” proposed by Syria.
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Panoramic Analysis of US Non-Farm Data in June: Employment Resilience and Market Ripples under Policy Gaming
- July 4, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The June non-farm data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, like a stone thrown into the market lake, not only reflects the complex resilience of the U.S. labor market, but also triggers the financial market to re-examine the policy path of the Federal Reserve. From the employment data itself to asset price fluctuations, from industry structure differentiation to institutional viewpoints, this report outlines the current subtle picture of the U.S. economy.
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Outlook for Non Farm payroll Data in June 2025: Employment Landscape in the Mist
- July 1, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
As the core observation indicator of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the fluctuation of US non farm employment data not only reflects the health of the labor market, but also directly affects the global asset pricing logic. The current market is in a critical period of the game between “high inflation stickiness” and “hidden concerns about economic slowdown”. The performance of non farm payroll data in June will further verify the cooling pace of the labor market and affect the pricing of the Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts in September. It is worth noting that the previous value has been revised downwards by 95000 people, and the deviation between the recent non farm data and market expectations has significantly increased. For example, although the non farm data added 139000 people in May exceeded expectations, there is a risk of statistical correction in the previous data itself.
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The Fed’s data dilemma and the euro exchange rate game: Dual variations of global monetary policy and market expectations
- June 27, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
In Q3 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suddenly announced that it would suspend the high-frequency collection of a number of core economic data, which stems from the strict cuts in non-essential government spending in the congressional budget. As an important reference indicator for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision-making, the frequency of non-farm payroll data collection has been reduced from monthly fine tracking to quarterly sampling surveys, and the sample coverage of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been reduced by 30%. At the same time, under the dual pressure of the energy crisis and supply chain reconstruction, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates three times in a row beyond expectations, pushing the euro against the U.S. dollar from 1.0572 to the key resistance level of 1.1218 in three months.
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Trump loyalists switch sides to support July interest rate cut, Powell faces dual political and economic pressures
- June 24, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 24th, the internal game within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rate cuts further intensified. Michelle Bowman, the Vice Chair of Federal Reserve Regulation nominated by Trump, explicitly stated in congressional testimony that if inflation remains moderate, she supports initiating interest rate cuts as early as July to “prevent potential structural weakness in the labor market. This statement echoes another confidant of Trump, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who emphasized in his speech on June 20 that the impact of tariffs on inflation “may be short-lived” and that the Fed should “prioritize economic downside risks” to open a policy window for a July rate cut.
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Japan cuts interest rates and reduces debt + oil price at $85, can your US stock holdings withstand it?
- June 19, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 17, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain its target interest rate at 0.5%, keeping its monetary policy unchanged for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The bank voted 8 to 1 to extend the existing bond reduction plan until March 2026, and reduce the monthly purchase of government bonds by about 200 billion yen per quarter from April 2026 until the monthly purchase scale is reduced to about 2 trillion yen from January to March 2027.
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The Western camp is no longer monolithic! UK, Canada and other five countries jointly sanction Israel’s far right minister, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe haven
- June 12, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 10th local time, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Norway issued a joint statement announcing asset freezes and travel bans on Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gavir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The reason for the sanctions is that the two individuals have repeatedly incited extreme violence against Palestinians, including supporting settlement expansion and advocating for forced displacement of Palestinians. This is the first time that Western countries have imposed sanctions on Israeli cabinet ministerial level officials, marking a significant divergence in Western policies towards Israel.
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Trump sends additional National Guard soldiers to Los Angeles, amid constitutional crisis and rising demand for safe haven in the gold market
- June 11, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 9th local time, US President Trump announced the deployment of 2000 additional National Guard soldiers to Los Angeles in response to ongoing riots caused by immigration law enforcement conflicts. This deployment is a further intervention by the Trump administration in the situation in California, following the first deployment of 2000 National Guard personnel on the 7th. As of June 10th, 1700 National Guard soldiers and 700 Marine Corps soldiers have been deployed in the Greater Los Angeles area, with a focus on protecting federal agencies and personnel.
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In depth analysis of the May 2025 non farm payroll report: Employment resilience supports economic expectations, while gold faces short-term pressure and long-term opportunities remain
- June 10, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The May non farm payroll data released by the US Department of Labor on June 6th showed that 139000 new jobs were added, slightly higher than the market expectation of 130000, but slower than the revised 147000 in April. The unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, in line with expectations. The salary growth rate exceeded expectations, with an average hourly wage increase of 3.9% year-on-year and a month on month increase of 0.4%, indicating that labor cost pressure still exists.
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Federal Reserve hawks warn of inflation risks, gold under pressure but long-term support remains
- June 9, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 6th local time, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid delivered speeches respectively, clearly recognizing inflation as the “number one threat” to the current economy. Kugler pointed out that the Trump administration’s tariff policies have had a substantial impact on prices, and it is expected that inflationary pressures will continue to worsen in 2025. She emphasized that despite signs of a slowdown in the labor market, the risk of inflation still outweighs the risk of employment decline, and supports maintaining current interest rates unchanged. Schmid warned that if core inflation fails to continue falling back towards the 2% target, the Federal Reserve may need to take more aggressive policy measures.
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