On the evening of June 4th Beijing time, the May ADP employment data (commonly known as “small non farm payroll”) in the United States shocked the market with 37000 new jobs, only one-third of the expected 110000, marking the lowest growth rate since March 2023. After the data was released, the US dollar index plummeted by 20 basis points in the short term, briefly falling below the 99 level to 98.9783, while spot gold surged by $6 to $3354.52 per ounce, highlighting market concerns about the economic outlook and the surge in safe haven demand. Combined with the US May ISM services PMI falling to 49.9 (the first contraction in nearly a year) released on the same day, and the policy shock of the Trump administration raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, gold bulls are experiencing multiple positive resonances.

In the first half of 2025, the US economy is deeply trapped in the shadow of stagflation of “low growth and high inflation”. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its GDP growth rate from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8%, and the OECD further dropped to 1.6%. Consumer data deteriorated across the board: the consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 in May (the lowest since June 2022), and the average annual loss of household disposable income due to tariffs was US$1,700-8,100, with low-income groups suffering 4%; at the same time, the core PCE inflation rate is expected to exceed 3.2% by the end of the year, far exceeding the Fed’s 2% target, and the price of imported goods such as leather and electronic products has increased by more than 15%, with an average annual additional expenditure of US$3,800 for a single household.

On Thursday morning (May 15th), the Asian market held its breath as it awaited the release of the US retail sales data for April (commonly known as the “terror data”) at 20:30. The current market expectation is that the monthly data rate will only increase by 0.3%, but several economists warn that due to the impact of tariff policies, declining consumer confidence, and inflation stickiness, the actual data may fall short of expectations, leading to severe fluctuations in the financial market.