The non farm payroll data released by the United States in May will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on May 2, with market focus on whether the labor market continues to slow down. In March, 228000 new non farm jobs were added, far exceeding the expected 135000. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, but the salary growth rate slowed down to 0.3% month on month. This data indicates that the labor market remains resilient, but the easing of wage pressures may provide space for the Federal Reserve’s policy shift.

On April 25th, senior officials of the Federal Reserve made intensive statements, clearly stating that there is no need to adjust monetary policy at present, and the interest rate remains unchanged in the range of 4.25% -4.5%. Behind this’ pause button ‘is the dual pressure of the’ stagflation ‘risk caused by the Trump administration’s tariff policies and the crisis of the Federal Reserve’s independence. Despite the market’s increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, Powell faces a difficult balance between “controlling inflation” and “stabilizing growth”, making it difficult to release signals of easing in the short term. Affected by this, the gold market has shown a roller coaster trend, with intraday fluctuations exceeding $20.