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Initial tariff impact: US June CPI rebounds year-on-year beyond expectations, gold under pressure to fall
- July 17, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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On July 16th, spot gold trading in the Asian market was around $3340 per ounce. The US dollar index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a high of 98.70 on Tuesday, reaching a new high since June 23 and closing at 98.616. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond rose to 4.487%, the highest level since June 11, and the 30-year yield hit a six week peak of 5.022%.
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Trump announces a 35% tariff on Canada and plans to implement universal tariffs, causing another ripple in the global trade landscape
- July 11, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On July 10th local time, US President Trump announced on social media that he would impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting from August 1st. This is another major trade policy adjustment by the Trump administration, following the 25% -40% tariff imposed on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea on July 7th. In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Carney, Trump accused Canada of “taking retaliatory tariff measures” and emphasized that this tariff is independent of all industry tariffs. If Canada does not cooperate to prevent fentanyl from flowing into the United States, tariffs may be further increased. At the same time, Trump revealed in an interview with NBC that he plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% -20% on countries that have not yet received tariff letters, and the global trading system is facing a “tariff storm” of comprehensive upgrading.
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Tariffs strangle inflation VS immigration tears apart employment – the US economy is trapped in a policy paradox trap
- June 12, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
As the Trump administration’s tariff policy and immigration restrictions are affecting the U.S. economy at the same time, a set of seemingly contradictory data is causing the market to think deeply about the true health of the economy. The changes in the consumer price index (CPI) and the job market in May are essentially a microcosm of the distortion of economic signals under policy intervention, and this phenomenon is making the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy regulation fall into an unprecedentedly complex situation.
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Federal Reserve hawks warn of inflation risks, gold under pressure but long-term support remains
- June 9, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 6th local time, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle W. Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid delivered speeches respectively, clearly recognizing inflation as the “number one threat” to the current economy. Kugler pointed out that the Trump administration’s tariff policies have had a substantial impact on prices, and it is expected that inflationary pressures will continue to worsen in 2025. She emphasized that despite signs of a slowdown in the labor market, the risk of inflation still outweighs the risk of employment decline, and supports maintaining current interest rates unchanged. Schmid warned that if core inflation fails to continue falling back towards the 2% target, the Federal Reserve may need to take more aggressive policy measures.
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ADP hits a two-year low! US dollar plummets, gold surges, expectations of interest rate cuts ignite bull frenzy
- June 6, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the evening of June 4th Beijing time, the May ADP employment data (commonly known as “small non farm payroll”) in the United States shocked the market with 37000 new jobs, only one-third of the expected 110000, marking the lowest growth rate since March 2023. After the data was released, the US dollar index plummeted by 20 basis points in the short term, briefly falling below the 99 level to 98.9783, while spot gold surged by $6 to $3354.52 per ounce, highlighting market concerns about the economic outlook and the surge in safe haven demand. Combined with the US May ISM services PMI falling to 49.9 (the first contraction in nearly a year) released on the same day, and the policy shock of the Trump administration raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, gold bulls are experiencing multiple positive resonances.
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US Treasury volatility, Fed policy game and global central bank gold hoarding: dual challenges under the US dollar system
- June 5, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
In the first half of 2025, the US economy is deeply trapped in the shadow of stagflation of “low growth and high inflation”. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its GDP growth rate from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8%, and the OECD further dropped to 1.6%. Consumer data deteriorated across the board: the consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 in May (the lowest since June 2022), and the average annual loss of household disposable income due to tariffs was US$1,700-8,100, with low-income groups suffering 4%; at the same time, the core PCE inflation rate is expected to exceed 3.2% by the end of the year, far exceeding the Fed’s 2% target, and the price of imported goods such as leather and electronic products has increased by more than 15%, with an average annual additional expenditure of US$3,800 for a single household.
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Trump plans to launch a global 15% tariff, trade market may experience another wave of turbulence
- June 3, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On May 29th local time, the Trump administration urgently launched “Plan B” after temporarily restoring tariff policies in the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, proposing to impose a 15% unified tariff on global imported goods within 150 days, covering core categories such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery. This policy circumvents congressional authorization by invoking Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and directly imposes comprehensive tariffs on imported goods under the pretext of “national security”.
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Trump’s’ Liberation Day ‘tariff policy ruled unconstitutional, global trade pattern faces restructuring
- May 30, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On May 28th local time, the US International Trade Court made a historic ruling, determining that the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff policy announced on April 2nd exceeded its authority, and ruling that the president has no right to impose comprehensive tariffs on trading partners. This ruling not only directly impacts the foundation of US trade policy, but also triggers a chain reaction among global trading partners, with major economies such as the European Union and Mexico launching retaliatory tariff plans. Affected by this, spot gold prices in Asia opened lower on May 29th, plummeting $30 to $3261.27 per ounce, hitting a new low since May 22nd. The US dollar index soared to 99.98, causing severe fluctuations in global financial markets.
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Trump boasts that tariff threat is effective: EU accelerates negotiations, gold market’s long short game intensifies
- May 29, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On May 27th, US President Trump declared on social media that his threat to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union was “effective,” stating that the EU has taken the initiative to accelerate the trade negotiation process. This statement originated from Trump’s sudden escalation of the tariff threat last week, and the President of the European Commission, von der Leyen, made an urgent call for consultation, which ultimately prompted Trump to postpone the implementation of tariffs from June 1 to July 9. However, the market’s concerns about trade frictions have not completely dissipated, and gold prices have shown a fluctuating pattern under the interweaving of long and short factors.
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Netanyahu’s tough stance triggers escalation of Middle East situation, with a surge in gold safe haven demand reaching a one week high
- May 23, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the evening of May 21st local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held his first press conference since December 2024, declaring that Israel will fully control the entire Gaza Strip and stating that “the war will be won until it is won”. This statement marks an escalation of Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip, shifting from “eliminating Hamas” to “permanently controlling territory”. Netanyahu emphasized that the ceasefire must be “temporary” and must be based on the disarmament of Hamas, the expulsion of the leadership, and the comprehensive demilitarization of Gaza.
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