Trump plans to launch a global 15% tariff, trade market may experience another wave of turbulence

1、 Tariff game escalates: White House bypasses Congress to launch ‘alternative plan’

On May 29th local time, the Trump administration urgently launched “Plan B” after temporarily restoring tariff policies in the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, proposing to impose a 15% unified tariff on global imported goods within 150 days, covering core categories such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery. This policy circumvents congressional authorization by invoking Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and directly imposes comprehensive tariffs on imported goods under the pretext of “national security”.

According to the White House statement, the plan will be implemented in stages: the first stage (June 1-30) will impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products; In the second phase (October 1st December 31st), the tax rate will be expanded to key areas such as automobiles and components, semiconductors, and ultimately achieve a unified tariff of 15%. This move aims to respond to the ruling of the International Court of Trade on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and avoid the same mistake as the suspension of “equivalent tariffs” on April 2.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration emphasized in its statement that if trading partners fail to reach a “reciprocal tariff agreement” within 60 days, an additional 10% punitive tariff will be imposed. This “carrot and stick” strategy has sparked strong backlash from major trading partners such as the European Union and Japan. The spokesperson for the European Commission stated that they will immediately initiate the WTO dispute settlement process and consider imposing retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, aircraft, and other goods.

2、 Weak economic data combined with policy uncertainty highlights the safe haven nature of gold

The revised data released by the US Department of Commerce on May 29th shows that GDP in the first quarter of 2025 shrank by 0.2% month on month, a significant decline from the previous growth rate of 2.4%, with net exports and government spending being the main drag. Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims surged by 14000 to 240000 in the week ending May 24th, far exceeding expectations, and corporate profits experienced the largest decline in four years.

The resonance between economic weakness and tariff policy uncertainty has intensified market concerns about the risk of stagflation. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting showed that the decision-making level is facing a split, with staff warning of rising recession risks, but inflationary pressures have not yet been eliminated. According to CME interest rate futures, the market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is as high as 84.4%, and the cumulative rate cut in 2025 may reach 50 basis points. Gold, as a zero interest asset, has highlighted its holding cost advantage under the expectation of interest rate cuts, attracting investors to invest on dips.

3、 Geopolitics and judicial games exacerbate market volatility

In addition to economic factors, the judicial game of tariff policies and changes in geopolitical situations further amplify the safe haven demand for gold. On May 28th, the US International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs based on IEEPA was unconstitutional, but on May 29th, the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals suspended the ruling and allowed the tariff policy to temporarily resume. The “tug of war” in this judicial system has led to fluctuating market expectations, with gold prices fluctuating sharply between $3245-3330.

Geographically, the Trump administration has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union on June 1st, while also demanding that 29 countries including Japan and South Korea implement joint tariffs on Chinese goods. This’ chain reaction ‘may trigger a restructuring of the global trading system, forcing investors to increase their gold allocation to hedge risks. Goldman Sachs’ latest report points out that gold will become the “most attractive safe haven asset” in the next five years, and recommends overweight gold and underweight oil. It is expected that the gold price will reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025.

4、 Risk Warning

Policy risk: The judicial game of tariff policies and changes in geopolitical situations may trigger severe market volatility.

Data risk: If PCE data deviates from expectations, it may lead to rapid adjustments in the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations.

Technical risk: Gold has a significant short-term increase, and caution should be exercised against the downward pressure caused by profit taking.

Investors need to pay close attention to the guidance of PCE data on market sentiment on May 30th, while closely monitoring the judicial progress of tariff policies and changes in the geopolitical situation. Technically speaking, short-term gold can rely on the support of $3300/ounce to lay out multiple orders, but it is necessary to strictly control positions and prevent market fluctuations before and after data release.