Zelensky Slams Putin’s Ceasefire Proposal: Russia-Ukraine conflict Still Sticks

Recently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has heated up again and become the focus of global attention. After Putin proposed a 72 hour ceasefire, Zelensky angrily rebuked it, calling it Russia’s “attempt to manipulate the situation again” and further intensifying the conflict between the two sides. This tense situation has had a significant impact on the financial market, especially the gold market.

1、 Conflict escalation: ceasefire proposal rejected, war continues to spread

On April 28th, the Kremlin issued a statement stating that, due to humanitarian considerations, in accordance with the decision of the Supreme Commander of the Russian Armed Forces, Putin, a ceasefire measure will be taken in the special military operation area during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War, that is, from 0:00 on May 8th to 0:00 on May 11th local time, all military operations will be suspended.

However, Zelensky responded strongly through social media, accusing Russia of “attempting to use a ceasefire to redeploy troops and consolidate positions, which is another violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty”. And it was proposed that a ceasefire should not only last for a few days before resuming the killing. The ceasefire must be immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional, lasting at least 30 days to ensure its safety and security.

As the ceasefire proposal failed, military operations on both sides quickly resumed and became increasingly intense. On April 27th, the Russian military launched a drone attack on the port of Odessa in Ukraine, causing three grain ships to catch fire, damaging some facilities at the port, and hindering grain exports. The Ukrainian army shelled civilian facilities in Donetsk, causing over 200 new civilian casualties in the area in a single day. According to statistics, the intensity of the war in conflict areas has increased by 35% compared to last month, and local people’s lives have fallen into deeper difficulties.

2、 Behind the scenes game: the deep competition between geopolitics and strategic interests

There are complex geopolitical and strategic interests behind this declaration conflict. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia and Ukraine have long-standing differences in territorial sovereignty, regional influence, and other aspects. The issue of Crimea’s ownership and the demand for autonomy in the Donbass region have always been the focus of conflict between the two sides. Russia hopes to stabilize the situation and safeguard its interests in the region through a ceasefire; Ukraine, on the other hand, is concerned that a ceasefire would give Russia a strategic advantage and threaten its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

At the level of strategic interests, the involvement of the United States and Europe has made the situation more complex. The United States is attempting to maintain tense relations between Russia and Ukraine by providing military assistance to Ukraine in order to enhance its influence in Europe; Although some European countries hope for an early end to the conflict, there are differences in their policies towards Russia. Some countries continue to provide military support to Ukraine, which to some extent contributes to Ukraine’s hardline attitude.

3、 Gold market: Risk aversion sentiment rises, prices fluctuate upwards

The continuous escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a sharp rise in risk aversion in the market, and gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, is favored by investors. As of the Asian session on April 29th, spot gold fluctuated at $3319.83 per ounce. Compared to before the escalation of the conflict (April 1st), it has increased by 7.2%.

4、 Outlook for the future: Focus on conflict trends and economic data, gold investment opportunities and risks coexist

Looking ahead, the trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still full of uncertainty. If the conflict escalates further, the safe haven nature of gold will continue to be highlighted, and it is expected to break through the current range and challenge the resistance level of $3370 or even higher. But if the international community’s diplomatic mediation makes substantial progress and both sides achieve a ceasefire, market risk aversion may quickly cool down, and gold prices will face downward pressure.

In addition, US economic data also has a significant impact on the gold market. The upcoming US non farm payroll data for May 3rd (expected to add 135000), if the data performs strongly, may increase market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, drive the US dollar to strengthen, and thus suppress gold prices; On the contrary, if the data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and boost gold prices.

The tension of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a profound impact on the gold market. Investors need to be cautious and fully aware of the uncertainty of the market while seizing investment opportunities. The subsequent development deserves continuous attention.